Chart of the Week: Rising fuel and electricity costs drive solar demand in Nigeria and Kenya

Solar imports into Kenya and Nigeria have demonstrated steady growth since 2017, with Nigeria experiencing a faster growth rate than Kenya, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 57.73% over six years, compared to Kenya's 9.61%.

Our analysis reveals significant growth in the Nigerian solar energy demand. 2023 solar imports reached a record high of 868MW, a 94% increase from 2022. This surge highlights growing consumer demand for electricity access and a shift from reliance on fossil fuels.

It's important to note that Nigeria and Kenya rank among the top 20 countries globally, with the largest populations lacking electricity access— approximately 88 million in Nigeria and 12 million in Kenya.

The increase in importation volumes can be attributed to several factors, including rising electricity tariffs, the high cost and volatility of fossil fuels, supportive government policies and incentives, and growing consumer awareness.

These countries have implemented supportive policies and